2026Networks, Uncertainty
Investment under Upstream and Downstream Uncertainty
Journal of Finance, February 2026, Vol 81, pages 413–457; DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70010
Watch videoNontechnical introductionUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel HillKenan-Flagler Business School
Gill
Segal.
Associate Professor of Finance, PhD
I study how uncertainty and production networks shape economic growth and asset prices.
Research interestsMacro-financeAsset pricingUncertaintyProduction networks
Published research
Selected recent publications
Watch videoNontechnical introductionForthcomingUncertainty, Production
Uncertainty, Risk, and Capital Growth
Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming. DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaf088
Watch videoNontechnical introductionForthcomingNetworks
Networks in Finance: Foundations and Frontiers
Annual Review of Financial Economics, forthcoming.
Watch videoNontechnical introductionSelected working papers
All working papersWorking paperNetworks
Working paperUncertainty
From the blog · 10/1/2026
Expensive Diesel: What Does it Signal?
Diesel now costs more than twice as much as crude on a per-barrel basis. Using data since 2006, I find that unusually high diesel/oil ratios have preceded slower headline inflation four to nine months later, even after accounting for oil prices and starting inflation. I examine what that could mean for the Fed in 2027 and test a shorter-term trade that buys US refiners against the broader oil-and-gas sector.
Read the article ↗Teaching
From economic models
to financial markets.
I teach MBA courses in investments and capital allocation, and a PhD course in macroeconomics and asset pricing.
I also lead the Capital Markets and Investments concentration at UNC Kenan-Flagler.
Courses & materials ↗