Kevin vs. Kevin: Markets Are Betting on the Next Fed Chair

Markets aren’t just pricing the next Fed Chair—they’re pricing the type of Fed that will emerge after Powell. Prediction market data reveal a sharp contrast: Kevin Hassett is associated with looser policy and higher inflation risk, while Kevin Warsh is priced as a stabilizing force that lowers inflation expectations and volatility. Subtle as it is, equity returns weakly suggest investors prefer credibility and lower uncertainty over aggressive rate cuts.