The Toothpaste Indicator: Why the Market is More Fragile Than It Looks

Everyone tracks the classic sector rotation to gauge market fear, but standard cap-weighted indices are currently flying blind due to Big Tech noise. By stripping away that distortion and looking at the equal-weighted performance of "average" companies, you uncover a pure macroeconomic signal that actually predicts future returns. Right now, that true fear gauge remains stubbornly low, signaling that the market is still too complacent and pointing to a negative return for the S&P 500 over the next year.